Why Population Growth Matters to the Future of Forests

May 1, 2000

The world's forests provide goods and services essential to human and planetary well-being. But forests are disappearing faster today than ever before. Due both to deforestation and human population growth, the current ratio of forests to human beings is less thn half what it was in 1960. Yet we not only need more forests, we need forests more than ever before–to protect the world's remaining plant and animal life, to prevent flooding, to slow human-induced climate change, and to provide the paper on which education and communication still depend. More efficient consumption of forest products and eventual stabilization of human population–a prospect that appears more promising today as birthrates decline–will be needed to conserve the world's forests in the coming millennium.

Forest Cover is Decreasing…

Half of the world's original forest cover is gone, a loss that reflects humanity's intensive use of land since the invention of farming. Of the forest that remains, less than one-fourth could be considered relatively undisturbed by human activity. The vast primeval forests of Europe and Asia survive today only as patchwork remnants of secondary growth, much of it vulnerable to logging, encroachment by development, pollution, fire and disease.

Forests are currently expanding in much of the industrialized world, while shrinking in most of the developing world. In just the first five years of the 1990s, 65 million hectares of forest–an area the size of Afghanistan– were converted to other uses in developing countries. By contrast, the industrialized countries gained 9 million hectares of forested land, an area about the size of Hungary. The pattern of forest loss in developing countries today differs from past losses in Europe and elsewhere in two key respects: human populations are much larger than before, and the pace of deforestation is more rapid. In the last four decades, an area half the size of the United States has been cleared of tropical forests, while population in developing countries has doubled to 4.7 billion. Among the most encouraging trends for the future of forests is the fact that fertility and birthrates are now declining in developing countries, leading demographers to revise downward their projections of future population growth.

A new measure of forest resource availability helps illustrate the increasing scarcity of forests in many countries. The forest-to-people ratio– a simple division of a country's forest cover by its population–helps quantify the number of people living with low levels of forest resources both now and in the future. Using a ratio of 0.1 hectare of forest cover per person (roughly a quarter acre) as a benchmark reveals that 1.7 billion people now live in 40 countries with critically low levels of forest cover. Many are vulnerable to scarcities of key forest products such as timber and paper and risk the collapse of vital forest services such as control of erosion and flooding in populated areas. In some countries the forest-to-people ratio declines even though forests expand, simply because their populations grow more rapidly than their forests. By 2025, based on United Nations data on deforestation and projected population growth, the number of people living in forest-scarce countries could nearly triple to 4.6 billion. Many are unlikely to have the options of wealthy countries to import or use substitutes for forest products and the environmental services forests provide.

…As Pressures on Forests Increase

Population dynamics are among the primary underlying causes of forest decline. Poverty, corruption, inequitable access to land and wasteful consumption practices also influence the decisions of governments, corporations and individuals to cut and clear forests. The interaction of these forces is most evident in areas such as South Asia, Central America and sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty, rapid population growth and weak institutions contribute to forest loss and severe environmental degradation.

The dominant force in forest loss is growth in the demand for farmland. Subsistence agriculture is the principal cause of forest loss in Africa, Asia and much of Latin America. Slash-and-burn farming and other traditional techniques were sustainable for centuries when population densities were lower. Today they are a major factor, along with the expansion of commercial farms and livestock grazing areas, in the permanent conversion of wooded land to agriculture. The need to increase food production is expected to accelerate the forest-to-farmland cycle, especially in countries where alternatives for meeting this demand are limited.

Total wood consumption has tripled during the 20th century. Per capita consumption has changed little on a global basis–actually decreasing slightly–but consumption patterns vary widely between countries. A typical American uses 15 times as much lumber and paper as a resident of a developing country. Reducing wood consumption in the industrialized world is unlikely to stop forest loss in developing countries however, since most of the wood consumed comes from trees in the industrialized countries themselves. Nevertheless, the consumption model offered to the rest of the world threatens accelerated forest loss as both populations and economies grow in developing countries.

Commercial logging of tropical forests has doubled since 1960, accounting for 5 million to 6 million hectares of forest loss each year, an area nearly the size of Sri Lanka. This is about one third the forest area lost each year in the developing world. Illegal logging causes a significant, though unquantified, amount of additional forest loss. Logging's biggest role in deforestation, however, is more indirect. Logging roads provide pathways deep into forests that farmers and other settlers then follow, permanently clearing the land for crops and pasture.

Nearly 3 billion people depend on wood as their main source of energy. The production of fuelwood and charcoal accounts for over 90 percent of the wood harvested in Africa, 80 percent in Asia and 70 percent in Latin America. Population growth is closely linked to rising woodfuel demand. The effects of woodfuel scarcity are most severe in impoverished areas, where more modern fuels are inaccessible or unaffordable.

The Human Face of Forest Loss

Women and children are the victims of woodfuel scarcity. The search for fuel consumes the time, energy and health of women and their children. As local wood supplies grow scarce, women risk spinal column damage and uterine prolapse from carrying heavier loads over longer distances. Girls are often kept home from school to help their mothers gather wood, depriving them of educational opportunities. Where wood is unavailable, women cook with inefficient fuels such as animal dung or crop wastes, depriving livestock of fodder and soils of natural fertilizer. This endangers both the nutritional and respiratory health of women and their families.

Forest scarcity threatens the use of paper for education, the activity most likely to improve health and economic well-being. 80 percent of the world's population lack access to enough affordable paper and reading materials to meet basic standards for literacy and communication. Reducing paper consumption could help ensure enough paper for all. These efforts are undermined, however, by broader inequalities in access to education and economic opportunity. Closing the "paper gap" between rich and poor nations ultimately depends on government action to increase spending on education, health and social services in developing countries. Future population growth and forest loss will largely determine whether and when this gap can be closed.

Helping People, Sustaining Forests

Population policies based on human development and human rights offer the greatest hope for the future of forests. This is not an argument for population "control" but for the social investments that allow couples to choose when to have children and how many to have. Programs linking conservation activities with family planning services show promise for achieving both the sustainable use of forests and greater acceptance of reproductive health services.

Sustainable wood consumption is essential for the future of forests. Individuals and institutions alike should promote the ecologically sound and socially responsible use of forest products. Eco-labeling, or the environmental certification of wood products, could speed the adoption of more sustainable forestry practices. Consumer demand for green-certified paper and other wood products is an important complement to recycling and other efforts to reduce wood consumption.

The well-being of the world's forests is closely linked to the health and well-being of women. Investing in education for girls helps them to contribute to their national economies–and to postpone childbearing until they are ready for a family. Providing credit and other economic opportunities for women creates alternatives to early and frequent childbearing. Finally, better access to quality reproductive health services directly benefits women and their families. These approaches increase human capacity, providing the greatest long-term return to societies, individuals and the environment. Moreover, they are likely to lead to an early peak in world population in the coming century–quite possibly at levels that can co-exist with forests that teem with human and non-human life for centuries to come.